"""Run Bollinger Band mean-reversion backtest on ETH 2023+2024. Preloads data once, then sweeps parameters in-memory for speed. """ import sys, time sys.stdout.reconfigure(line_buffering=True) sys.path.insert(0, str(__import__("pathlib").Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1])) import numpy as np import pandas as pd import matplotlib matplotlib.use("Agg") import matplotlib.pyplot as plt from pathlib import Path from collections import defaultdict from strategy.bb_backtest import BBConfig, run_bb_backtest from strategy.data_loader import KlineSource, load_klines from datetime import datetime, timezone root = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] src = KlineSource(db_path=root / "models" / "database.db", table_name="bitmart_eth_5m") out_dir = root / "strategy" / "results" out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) t0 = time.time() # Preload data once print("Loading data...") df_23 = load_klines(src, datetime(2023,1,1,tzinfo=timezone.utc), datetime(2023,12,31,23,59,tzinfo=timezone.utc)) df_24 = load_klines(src, datetime(2024,1,1,tzinfo=timezone.utc), datetime(2024,12,31,23,59,tzinfo=timezone.utc)) data = {2023: df_23, 2024: df_24} print(f"Loaded: 2023={len(df_23)} bars, 2024={len(df_24)} bars ({time.time()-t0:.1f}s)") # ================================================================ # Sweep # ================================================================ print("\n" + "=" * 120) print(" Bollinger Band Mean-Reversion — ETH 5min | 1000U capital") print(" touch upper BB -> short, touch lower BB -> long (flip)") print("=" * 120) results = [] def test(label, cfg): """Run on both years, print summary, store results.""" row = {"label": label, "cfg": cfg} for year in [2023, 2024]: r = run_bb_backtest(data[year], cfg) d = r.daily_stats pnl = d["pnl"].astype(float) eq = d["equity"].astype(float) dd = float((eq - eq.cummax()).min()) final = float(eq.iloc[-1]) nt = len(r.trades) wr = sum(1 for t in r.trades if t.net_pnl > 0) / max(nt, 1) * 100 nf = r.total_fee - r.total_rebate row[f"a{year}"] = float(pnl.mean()) row[f"d{year}"] = dd row[f"r{year}"] = r row[f"n{year}"] = nt row[f"w{year}"] = wr row[f"f{year}"] = nf row[f"eq{year}"] = final mn = min(row["a2023"], row["a2024"]) avg = (row["a2023"] + row["a2024"]) / 2 mark = " <<<" if mn >= 20 else (" **" if mn >= 10 else "") print(f" {label:52s} 23:{row['a2023']:+6.1f} 24:{row['a2024']:+6.1f} " f"avg:{avg:+5.1f} n23:{row['n2023']:3d} n24:{row['n2024']:3d} " f"dd:{min(row['d2023'],row['d2024']):+7.0f}{mark}") row["mn"] = mn; row["avg"] = avg results.append(row) # [1] BB period print("\n[1] Period sweep") for p in [10, 15, 20, 30, 40]: test(f"BB({p},2.0) 80u 100x", BBConfig(bb_period=p, bb_std=2.0, margin_per_trade=80, leverage=100)) # [2] BB std print("\n[2] Std sweep") for s in [1.5, 1.8, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0]: test(f"BB(20,{s}) 80u 100x", BBConfig(bb_period=20, bb_std=s, margin_per_trade=80, leverage=100)) # [3] Margin print("\n[3] Margin sweep") for m in [40, 60, 80, 100, 120]: test(f"BB(20,2.0) {m}u 100x", BBConfig(bb_period=20, bb_std=2.0, margin_per_trade=m, leverage=100)) # [4] SL print("\n[4] Stop-loss sweep") for sl in [0.0, 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05]: test(f"BB(20,2.0) 80u SL={sl:.0%}", BBConfig(bb_period=20, bb_std=2.0, margin_per_trade=80, leverage=100, stop_loss_pct=sl)) # [5] MDL print("\n[5] Max daily loss") for mdl in [50, 100, 150, 200]: test(f"BB(20,2.0) 80u mdl={mdl}", BBConfig(bb_period=20, bb_std=2.0, margin_per_trade=80, leverage=100, max_daily_loss=mdl)) # [6] Combined fine-tune print("\n[6] Fine-tune") for p in [15, 20, 30]: for s in [1.5, 2.0, 2.5]: for m in [80, 100]: test(f"BB({p},{s}) {m}u mdl=150", BBConfig(bb_period=p, bb_std=s, margin_per_trade=m, leverage=100, max_daily_loss=150)) # ================================================================ # Ranking # ================================================================ results.sort(key=lambda x: x["mn"], reverse=True) print(f"\n{'='*120}") print(f" TOP 10 — ranked by min(daily_avg_2023, daily_avg_2024)") print(f"{'='*120}") for i, r in enumerate(results[:10]): print(f" {i+1:2d}. {r['label']:50s} 23:{r['a2023']:+6.1f} 24:{r['a2024']:+6.1f} " f"min:{r['mn']:+6.1f} dd:{min(r['d2023'],r['d2024']):+7.0f} " f"wr23:{r['w2023']:.0f}% wr24:{r['w2024']:.0f}%") # ================================================================ # Detailed report for best # ================================================================ best = results[0] print(f"\n{'#'*70}") print(f" BEST: {best['label']}") print(f"{'#'*70}") for year in [2023, 2024]: r = best[f"r{year}"] cfg = best["cfg"] d = r.daily_stats pnl = d["pnl"].astype(float) eq = d["equity"].astype(float) dd = (eq - eq.cummax()).min() final = float(eq.iloc[-1]) nt = len(r.trades) wr = sum(1 for t in r.trades if t.net_pnl > 0) / max(nt, 1) nf = r.total_fee - r.total_rebate loss_streak = max_ls = 0 for v in pnl.values: if v < 0: loss_streak += 1; max_ls = max(max_ls, loss_streak) else: loss_streak = 0 print(f"\n --- {year} ---") print(f" Final equity : {final:,.2f} U ({final-cfg.initial_capital:+,.2f}, " f"{(final-cfg.initial_capital)/cfg.initial_capital*100:+.1f}%)") print(f" Max drawdown : {dd:,.2f} U") print(f" Avg daily PnL : {pnl.mean():+,.2f} U") print(f" Median daily PnL : {pnl.median():+,.2f} U") print(f" Best/worst day : {pnl.max():+,.2f} / {pnl.min():+,.2f}") print(f" Profitable days : {(pnl>0).sum()}/{len(pnl)} ({(pnl>0).mean():.1%})") print(f" Days >= 20U : {(pnl>=20).sum()}") print(f" Max loss streak : {max_ls} days") print(f" Trades : {nt} (win rate {wr:.1%})") print(f" Net fees : {nf:,.0f} U") sharpe = pnl.mean() / max(pnl.std(), 1e-10) * np.sqrt(365) print(f" Sharpe (annual) : {sharpe:.2f}") # ================================================================ # Chart # ================================================================ fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 2, figsize=(18, 12), gridspec_kw={"height_ratios": [3, 1.5, 1]}) for col, year in enumerate([2023, 2024]): r = best[f"r{year}"] cfg = best["cfg"] d = r.daily_stats eq = d["equity"].astype(float) pnl = d["pnl"].astype(float) dd = eq - eq.cummax() axes[0, col].plot(eq.index, eq.values, linewidth=1.2, color="#1f77b4") axes[0, col].axhline(cfg.initial_capital, color="gray", ls="--", lw=0.5) axes[0, col].set_title(f"BB Strategy Equity — {year}\n" f"BB({cfg.bb_period},{cfg.bb_std}) {cfg.margin_per_trade}u {cfg.leverage:.0f}x", fontsize=11) axes[0, col].set_ylabel("Equity (U)") axes[0, col].grid(True, alpha=0.3) colors = ["#2ca02c" if v >= 0 else "#d62728" for v in pnl.values] axes[1, col].bar(pnl.index, pnl.values, color=colors, width=0.8) axes[1, col].axhline(20, color="orange", ls="--", lw=1, label="20U target") axes[1, col].axhline(0, color="gray", lw=0.5) axes[1, col].set_ylabel("Daily PnL (U)") axes[1, col].legend(fontsize=8) axes[1, col].grid(True, alpha=0.3) axes[2, col].fill_between(dd.index, dd.values, 0, color="#d62728", alpha=0.4) axes[2, col].set_ylabel("Drawdown (U)") axes[2, col].grid(True, alpha=0.3) fig.tight_layout() fig.savefig(out_dir / "bb_strategy_report.png", dpi=150) plt.close(fig) print(f"\nChart: {out_dir / 'bb_strategy_report.png'}") print(f"Total time: {time.time()-t0:.0f}s")